Latest Asylum Trends

At the start of 2025, the asylum landscape in the EU+ experienced a significant shift. For more than a decade, Syrians had been the largest group of asylum seekers in the EU+ but in January and February 2025 this trend reversed with Syrian applications dropping sharply to third place, while Venezuelans emerged as the top applicant group. At the same time, Germany – long the top destination for asylum seekers in the EU+ – ended the month with slightly fewer applications than both France and Spain. While the differences between the three countries were marginal, the fact that Germany was not the main receiving EU+ country still marks a symbolic change in the distribution of asylum applications across the EU+.

The drop in Syrian applications has been extremely abrupt. In December 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, (HTS) seized control of Damascus, overthrowing the Assad regime and a new transitional Syrian government was established in March 2025. These events coincided with a steep decline in Syrians seeking protection in EU+ – monthly Syrian asylum applications fell from roughly 16,000 in October 2024 to just 5,000 in February 2025, a steep downward trend of nearly 70% in just four months. This downturn, the like of which has not been seen since the initial wave of COVID-19 lockdowns when many borders and asylum offices were effectively closed, is likely not due to any asylum policy changes in the EU+. While it is true that most EU+ countries have suspended processing Syrian asylum applications until the situation in Syria becomes clearer, they are still accepting new claims. Rather, the shift likely reflects changing circumstances in Syria. With the new authorities advocating for stability and reconstruction, many displaced Syrians have evidently become more hopeful about returning to rebuild their communities, making them less inclined to seek asylum in the EU+.

That said, a wave of retaliatory violence led around 10,000 Alawites to flee the coastal governorate of Latakia for Lebanon though this may be an isolated event. For an updated analysis of the situation in Syria following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad, refer to the latest EUAA country of origin information report: Syria - Country Focus.

In contrast, asylum applications from Venezuelan nationals have been steadily on the rise. By February 2025, Venezuelans became the most common citizenship seeking asylum in the EU+, with around 8,500 applications, which is a 44% increase compared to the same month in 2024. This surge is part of an ongoing trend, as Venezuelans have been among the top applicant groups in recent years. The vast majority of these claims are lodged in Spain, where a shared language and established diaspora make it the primary destination. Although most Venezuelan applicants do not receive international protection, Spanish authorities tend to grant them a national form of protection, allowing them to stay.

Multiple factors are likely driving the rise in Venezuelan applications. The severe economic and political crisis in Venezuela continues to uproot people. Additionally, evolving migration policies in the US may be influencing where Venezuelans seek refuge. In late 2024, the United States tightened its asylum rules and resumed deportation flights for Venezuelans, which may have discouraged some from trying to go there. Facing these barriers, more Venezuelans may turn their focus towards the EU+. Importantly, Venezuelan citizens can travel visa-free to the Schengen area for short stays, making it relatively easy to reach countries like Spain and then apply for asylum. Indeed, roughly a quarter of all asylum seekers in the EU+ come from nations whose citizens enjoy visa-free access to Schengen (for an annual chart, click here).

Afghans have also long played an important role in the asylum landscape in the EU+. In February 2025, they lodged 7,200 applications which is much reduced compared the peak of the autumn of 2023 but still meant that they were ranked second among all citizenships seeking asylum. Greece is increasingly receiving the most Afghan applications, which is important because the Greek Council of State recently ruled that Turkey was unsafe for refugees, meaning that their applications will now need to be processed individually. Read an EUAA Country Focus report on the general security and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, plus Country Guidance, which focusses on the key elements of qualification for international protection.

Despite being eligible for temporary protection, more Ukrainians have also been applying for international protection in the EU+ (even though numbers still remain way lower than registrations for temporary protection). In February 2025, Ukrainians lodged 3,100 asylum applications, which is up by 77% compared to a year previously in February 2024. The increase was concentrated in France, where in February 2025 nearly half of all Ukrainian applications were lodged, followed by Poland with a third (see chart). See also section on Migrants from Ukraine.

In the autumn of 2023, Turkish nationals suddenly sought international protection in the EU+ in unprecedented numbers such that for a short time they ranked second among all citizenships applying for asylum. This influx was likely driven by several factors including political dissidents. In 2023, this Germany-centred surge was short-lived with far fewer Turks seeking protection in subsequent months, such that in February 2025, Turks lodged just 2,800 applications which is down by 43% compared to a year previously. However, recent protests against the arrest of Erdogan’s main political rival do not bode well for stability in Türkiye.

In recent months more Haitians have been seeking asylum in the EU+. In February 2025, they lodged 1,200 applications almost exclusively in France. This level of applications is less than many of the other main citizenships analysed here, but it is a near-record number for Haitians and up by 75% compared to a year previously. Haiti is currently experiencing a severe escalation in gang-related violence, particularly in its capital, Port-au-Prince. According to the UN, thousands of people have been killed or wounded, most by gunfire, and over a million have fled their homes. In February 2025, 45% of the applications lodged were repeat applications which suggests that the applicants did not newly arrive in the EU+.

This chart above provides a comprehensive overview of February’s top 20 nationalities' asylum application trends, smoothing out month-to-month fluctuations by comparing data from the past 12 months (yellow) with the preceding 12 months (blue). Syrians and Afghans lodged the most applications for asylum during both of these time periods. However, both citizenships lodged fewer applications compared to the previous period, Syrians -25% and Afghans -23%.

At the level of the whole EU+, among the top 20 nationalities only Ukrainian, Malian and Haitian nationals lodged significantly more applications in the twelve months leading up to February 2025 compared to the preceding twelve months, registering 96%, 97% and 131% increases between these two time periods. However, figures at the EU+ level can conceal important changes taking place within individual EU+ countries:

For example:

• In France, the number of Ukrainian (+217%) applications increased dramatically between the reporting periods, as did the number for Haitians (+136%) seeking protection, which contrasts with the declining number of Afghans (-26%).

• In Spain, fewer Colombians (-32%) lodged asylum applications, but many more Venezuelans (+14%), Malians (+532%) and Senegalese (+108%).

• In Germany, Syrians (-29%), Afghans (-32%) and Turks (-60%) all lodged far fewer applications.

• In Italy, increasing numbers of Bangladeshis (+30%), Peruvians (+87%) and Moroccans (+86%) sought protection, whereas far fewer Pakistanis (-27%) and Egyptians (-39%) lodged applications.

For more than a decade, Germany has been at the forefront of the asylum situation in the EU+ but in February 2025, it was no longer the top destination for asylum seekers in the EU+, receiving less than 13,000 applications, representing 19% of the total and a drop of 40% compared to February 2024. Instead, in an unusual turnaround in February 2025 France and Spain both received (very slightly) more applications than Germany, both at around 13,000 applications and both with more or less stable numbers compared with 12 months previously. Also important were more than 11,000 applications lodged in Italy despite a declining trend. Taken together applications in these four receiving countries represented almost three quarters of all applications lodged in the EU+.

Despite remarkably similar numbers of applications being lodged in the main receiving countries there were major differences in the nature of the caseloads. For example, there is a remarkable lack of overlap between the citizenships that tend to apply in the main receiving countries: as the chart above illustrates, in France the top two citizenships were Ukrainians and Haitians; in Spain a noteworthy 61% of all applications were lodged by Venezuelans; in Germany more than half of all applications were lodged by Syrians, Afghans and Turks; and in Italy nearly a third of all applications were lodged by Bangladeshis and Peruvians.

Certain nationalities predominantly lodge their asylum applications in a single EU+ country, reflecting localised patterns. In February 2025, nearly all applicants from Haiti and most applicants from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (76%) were in France, the vast majority of Venezuelans (93%) and most Malians (72%) lodged their applications in Spain, whereas most Bangladeshis (78%) and Peruvians (71%) sought protection in Italy. No longer featuring in the main body of applications, nearly two thirds of Syrians lodged their applications in Germany. These concentrations can be seen in the Overview section.

Evaluating which EU+ countries tend to receive the most applications for asylum is important but to some extent a simple like-for-like comparison is not appropriate because the EU+ countries vary wildly in terms of the size and capacity of their asylum and reception systems. For more information, read an EUAA report on the national authorities responsible for different steps of the asylum and reception systems. As a rough measure of their overall capacity and a more nuanced estimation of the pressure exerted on national authorities, this chart illustrates the number of asylum applications lodged per million inhabitants (using Eurostat population data).

In February 2025, Greece, with a population size of around 10.4 million received around 4,800 asylum applications. This amounts to a rate of 461 applications per million population or 1 application for every 2,200 inhabitants. France for example, may have received many more applications for asylum (13,000) but, given its larger population of 68 million, the French rate was much lower, at 191 applications per million inhabitants or 1 application per 5,200 inhabitants. Germany and Australia, while receiving very different numbers of applications per se (13,000 and 1,400 respectively) actually received the same numbers per capita, at 153 applications per million population.

Hungary, despite a population size approaching 10 million, accepted just 11 applications for asylum in February 2025 mostly because third-country nationals seeking protection in Hungary can only apply after submitting a declaration of intent at a Hungarian embassy in a non-EU country. In December 2020, the European Court of Justice held that Hungary failed to comply with the rules of EU law on procedures for granting international protection and returning illegally staying third-country nationals.

Taking the whole EU+ into consideration: its population of 463 million and 69,000 asylum applications received in February 2025 converts into 148 applications per million population or about 1 application for every 6,800 persons. 

Over the past two years, the recognition rate, which reflects the percentage of asylum applicants that receive decisions granting either refugee status or subsidiary protection, has fluctuated around 40% at first instance, with slightly more decisions granting refugee status rather than subsidiary protection.

In January and February 2025, the EU+ recognition rate for asylum applications fell to its lowest level outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. This decline was driven by a sharp drop in decisions issued to Syrian applicants, who typically received a high number of positive outcomes. Most EU+ countries temporarily paused the processing of Syrian asylum claims during this period, pending greater clarity on the security and political situation in Syria. As a result, the number of decisions issued to Syrians fell significantly—from a typical monthly volume of over 10,000 to approximately 1,600 in both January and February. Of these decisions, only around 14% were positive, in stark contrast to the usual recognition rate of 90% or higher for Syrian nationals.

Importantly, this shift does not reflect stricter qualification for granting international protection to Syrians. Instead, the lower recognition rate appears to be largely driven by procedural factors: many Syrians have withdrawn their asylum applications, which is, in some EU+ countries, recorded statistically as a negative decision. This may reflect evolving intentions among Syrian applicants, with some possibly planning to return home given the recent political developments in Syria.

As the Syrian example illustrates, the EU+ recognition rate is a composite indicator shaped by diverse trends, including differences between citizenships and the types of protection granted. Recognition rates for different nationalities can vary significantly. For example, Afghan applicants have a recognition rate of around 60%, while nationals from Turkey and Pakistan have rates below 20% and 10%, respectively. While many recognition rates remain fairly stable over time—such as those for Georgians and Bangladeshis, who maintained recognition rates of just below 5% in February 2025—there are notable exceptions to this general pattern:

• Syrians: The recognition rate has been above 90% for most of the last two years with most decisions granting subsidiary protection rather than refugee status. At the beginning of 2025 the number of decisions being issued dropped 10-fold, e.g. because of Syrians withdrawing their applications, resulting in a misleading recognition rate of 15%
  For an updated analysis of the situation in Syria following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad, refer to the latest EUAA country of origin information report: Syria - Country Focus.

• Haiti: Since early-2023 the recognition rate has been increasing from 25% to 75% in February 2025 with most decisions granting subsidiary protection.

• Iraqis: The recognition rate peaked in October 2023 but since then has remained rather variable, most recently at 22% in February 2025. Read the new EUAA Country Guidance on Iraq, as well as Iraq - Country Focus and Iraq - Security Situation.

• Turks: The recognition rate has been in steady decline for more than the last two years, reaching 12% in February 2025.

The aim of EUAA’s work is to foster a harmonised implementation of the Common European Asylum System across the EU so as to reach a situation where an application for international protection would receive the same decision, no matter where it was lodged. Recognition rates – the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status or subsidiary protection – are sometimes cited as an indicator of the level of such harmonisation between EU+ countries.

It is important to recognise that several objective factors may lead to variations in recognition rates. The complexity of an asylum application and its examination cannot be reduced to a single measure such as the nationality of the applicant. Differences in the underlying profile of the applicant, national jurisprudence and national policies, and the application of certain legal concepts also come into play and can result in different recognition rates. For more information, read the EUAA Pilot Convergence Analysis which focuses on the main factors leading to variations in recognition rates as well as on measures to achieve greater convergence. Irrespective of underlying causes, the chart presented here illustrates recognition rates across the EU+ for various citizenships. In each column, individual circles of the same colour represent different issuing countries, with the size of each circle reflecting the number of decisions issued, and their placement on the vertical axis indicating the corresponding recognition rate—namely, the percentage of decisions that granted refugee status or subsidiary protection.

Between December 2024 and February 2025, the EU+ recognition rate for Afghans stood at 61% but as the chart shows, there was much variation between receiving countries (leftmost column of black circles). Most decisions were issued by Germany (the biggest circle, labelled) where the December 2024 – February 2025 recognition rate stood at 33%. However, it is important to note that Germany also issued many decisions to Afghans granting a national form of protection (39% of all German first instance decisions issued to Afghans, counted here as negative decisions for international protection), which would push up the ‘inclusive’ German recognition rate to 72%, and the EU+ recognition rate for Afghans to 78%. Greece also issued many decisions to Afghans with a December 2024 – February 2025 recognition rate of 98%, compared with 64% in France, 93% in Switzerland. To visualise these differences, click here. Read EUAA Country Guidance on Afghanistan and EUAA Country Focus on Afghanistan.

A new feature of the Asylum and Migration Pact is the mandatory border procedure, which as of June 2026 will apply to certain categories of asylum seekers including those coming from countries with low recognition rates for international protection. The aim of the border procedure is to make a quick assessment at the EU's external borders of whether applications are unfounded or inadmissible. People in the asylum border procedure would not be authorised to enter the territory of the EU. For more details read the Asylum Procedures Regulation Art 42(j) 2024/1348.

In February 2025, some 52% of applications were lodged by citizenships who had recognition rates of 20% or less in 2024. This estimation was calculated using EUAA data, plus to ensure statistical reliability, our calculations excluded citizenships that received fewer than 1,000 decisions in 2024. This exclusion is necessary because, when the sample size is small, a few additional positive or negative decisions can dramatically alter the calculated recognition rate, potentially leading to unstable or misleading estimates.

Here the chart shows the main citizenships that applied for asylum in February 2025, separated into whether or not they fall into the category of having a recognition rate of 20% or less in 2024. The applications in the chart represent three quarters of all applications lodged in February 2025.

Pending first instance asylum cases represent applications awaiting an initial decision from national asylum authorities. This metric serves as a critical indicator of the workload faced by asylum systems and the pressure exerted on reception facilities. As of the end of February 2025, the number of pending first instance cases remained stable but at a high level of 964,000.

Citizenships lodging the most applications also tend to account for the largest shares of pending cases. At the end of February 2024, Syrians (113,000), Venezuelans (100,000) and Colombians (89,000) were awaiting the most first instance decisions. Note that many of the 113,000 Syrian cases have been suspended until the situation in Syria has stabilised, and so these cases are not being processed for the time being. Among the citizenships with the most cases awaiting decisions, the biggest year-on-year increases occurred for Ukrainians (62%), Venezuelans (+56%), Peruvians (+38%) as well as Bangladeshis (31%).

Geographically, the largest increase in pending cases over the past year occurred in Spain (+27%) where Venezuelans, Colombians and Peruvians all applied in highest numbers, but also in Italy (+31%) where the Bangladeshi, Pakistan, Egyptian and Peruvian caseloads dominate. In contrast, Germany's pending caseload declined by a non-trivial -20%.

Under the Early Warning and Preparedness System (EPS), EU+ asylum authorities regularly report to the EUAA the number of cases that they have pending at first instance—that is, newly lodged applications still awaiting an initial decision. However, this indicator does not reflect the full scope of the caseload being processed across the EU+ because there are also many cases pending in appeal and in review: cases pending in appeal refer to those that have been challenged before the judiciary, where applicants contest the first instance decision on points of fact and/or law. At the same time, other cases are pending in review, meaning the asylum authority has been requested to re-examine its original decision—often due to procedural concerns or new information.

To get a more comprehensive picture of the total number of all pending cases, Eurostat maintains an indicator, which tracks the number of asylum cases pending at all procedural instances. According to this indicator, at the end of January 2025, there were approximately 1.3 million asylum cases pending across the EU+. As shown in the chart, this number has been on the increase; just 18 months previously there were fewer than a million cases pending at all instances.

By combining Eurostat data with EUAA figures, we estimate that at the end of January 2025 about three quarters (76%) of the total pending cases were pending at first instance (963,000), while the remaining 24% (310,000) were awaiting decisions at second or higher instances.

In addition to asylum applications, at the end of February 2025, approximately 4.5 million individuals were benefiting from temporary protection in the EU+. This figure has remained relatively stable since early 2023 but continues to significantly contribute to the overall number of people in the EU+ with protection needs.

Temporary protection is based on a 2001 Directive which was triggered for the first time in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The aim is to offer quick and effective assistance to people displaced to the EU+. For further details, refer to the EUAA report on the Application of the Temporary Protection Directive.

At the end of February 2025, half of all beneficiaries of temporary protection were either in Germany (1.2 million) or Poland (1 million). The chart illustrates the number of beneficiaries of temporary protection per capita being hosted in each EU+ country. At the end of February 2025, Czechia hosted nearly 400,000 beneficiaries and the most beneficiaries per capita: specifically 36,000 beneficiaries per million inhabitants, or one beneficiary for every 27 inhabitants. Next in line, was Poland where nearly a million beneficiaries represented 27,000 per million inhabitants or one beneficiary per 37 inhabitants.